Last week, the market followed the release of the IPCA for August, which showed deflation of 0.02%, below market expectations. However, the number was not enough to change expectations of an increase in the Selic rate.
On the international side, investors also followed the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
With this in mind, Brazilian interest rate futures closed the week with an opening along the entire curve. Real interest rates rose, with NTN-Bs (Tesouro IPCA+) consolidating at 6.20%, according to the reading by the fixed income team at XP Investimentos .
Among Treasury bonds, the stocks closed mixed during the week, with the largest negative weekly variation being NTN-B 2045, at -0.75%. On the other hand, the one that presented the largest positive variation was NTN-B 2025, with 0.34%.
Meanwhile, in the Brazilian secondary private credit market, spreads on debentures indexed to the CDI ended the week higher. The IDEX-DI index closed at 1.68%, compared to 1.66% last week.
Premiums on tax-exempt debentures also decreased, according to XP. The average daily trading flow in non-incentivized debentures was R$1.10 billion, of which R$536 million were in incentive debentures, R$249 million in CRIs and R$334 million in CRAs .
What’s happening with fixed income and Treasury Direct this week?
To begin with, this Monday, the market received the new projections from the Focus Report , in which economists raised inflation projections for the ninth week in a row.
On Tuesday (17), the focus will be on the General Price Index – 10 ( IGP-10 ), referring to the period between August 11 and September 10, in addition to the first day of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee ( Copom ) of the Central Bank .
The most anticipated day for the market in September takes place this week, on the so-called Super Wednesday. This is because both the Federal Reserve ( Fed , the central bank of the United States) and the Monetary Policy Committee ( Copom ) of the Central Bank of Brazil release their decisions on interest rates.