The RBR High Grade real estate fund ( RBRR11 ) left its space in the monthly portfolio of Empiricus Research , opening a position for Kinea Securities ( KNSC11 ) in September. In addition, the brokerage firm highlighted that the composition of FIIs in the last month registered an increase of 1.04%, while the Real Estate Fund Index (Ifix) advanced 0.86%.
According to analysts Felipe Miranda and Caio Nabuco de Araújo, questions surrounding the likely increase in the Selic rate in the coming months have dominated discussions in the real estate fund universe . Although the latest interest rate hikes have shown an inverse correlation with FIIs, analysts are calming investors.
“The cycles that began in 2013 and 2021, for example, occurred in contexts and with magnitudes that were completely different from what is expected for this brief interval of increases,” they explain. “This inverse correlation may be weakening. It is possible that this brief cycle of interest rate hikes reinforces this impression.”
Despite expectations of an increase in the Selic rate at the next Copom meeting , the IFIX recorded a 0.9% increase in August. When evaluating the historical relationship between the index and short-term interest rates, analysts found a negative correlation between the series that, even when affected by several external factors, is attenuated in the 36- and 48-month moving windows.
Forecasts for FIIs
In addition, another event that Empiricus projects is the reduction in the pace of FIIs offering. “Until July, the volume of closed issuances was R$31.1 billion, surpassing the entire amount raised in 2023”, they state.
Until this month, the offerings of brick and mortar and hybrid funds were the drivers, with emphasis on BTG Logístico ( BTLG11 ) and XP Malls ( XPML11 ), which raised R$1.5 billion and R$1.8
billion, respectively.
With this in mind, regarding the rest of this year, analysts believe that credit funds should remain on investors’ radar. “The sectoral performance in August already illustrates this scenario a little, with credit funds outperforming almost all segments in the period.”